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Digital ID makes no difference to this whatsoever. If a government wanted to cut you off from utilities they could make it happen within hours already.

Same with conscription, which needless to say was invented and effectively implemented prior to the invention of digital anything.


You should maybe read some articles about modern situations where people dodged conscription before assuming what is practical today. The average person who hasn't thought about it for a week is certainly in trouble but..


Why is the solution to avoiding conscription being able to hide rather than making the conscription not happen in the first place?


Governments in a position to conscript their citizens usually aren’t taking a lot of feedback on the issue.

Yes, fight in advance to prevent such a situation, but don’t assume you will win. It’s good to have a backup plan.


If the third world war were declared tomorrow I think there would be precious few governments who didn't get started on conscription.


I'm not sure about that. Maybe? But... Firstly, there are surprisingly many people who are insanely patriotic so would volunteer anyway (perhaps fewer than in the past but perhaps still enough; see point three). Secondly, there are surprisingly many people who enjoy violence and killing people so would volunteer anyway (this probably hasn't changed). Thirdly, modern warfare doesn't need large numbers of people (this has definitely changed over time). And fourthly, a lot of modern people rather object to being ordered around by the government (I think this has probably increased a bit, at least; I can imagine that there are even people who would volunteer for military service when it's optional but would resist being conscripted).


In fact I cant disagree with most of what you've said, except to say that I was thinking from the state perspective, rather than the cannon-fodder.

Conscription has never been popular, and I think today in healthy industrialised nations it would be an exceptionally hard sell. Ukraine, Russia and (somewhat) Israel give us hints here of what might happen if the US or Germany or India started drafting all able-bodied young men.

It would be a disaster, but my guess is that it wouldn't stop governments from trying.


You need to convince, what, 300 people in a country to vote in their voting system the right way, and then it affects millions of people.


> Digital ID makes no difference to this whatsoever.

Of course it does. It makes it possible to track exactly where you are and what you are doing. So it pushes the balance of power towards the authorities.


> It makes it possible to track exactly where you are and what you are doing

No??? What do you imagine, that every single transaction you make, like buying bread, will require a Digital ID? Why on earth would you imagine that?


if your digital ID is tied to your phone (which is eventually where things are going), that is exactly what is going to happen. There is no reason that it would stop somewhere in the middle.


Other than common sense and civic duty?

Why would anyone propose, and why would anyone agree to, Digital/Physical ID becoming mandatory for mundane transactions? It doesn't make any sense and it would never fly.


Betting sites set their odds to maximise their revenue, not reality ;)

Polymarkets currently has him at 3%

https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025?t...


On the one hand, betting markets are fantastic predictors. I do really admire the "skin in the game" aspect tracking future outcomes better than polling or "expert" opinion.

But that comes at a steep cost. It's a huge negative externality. Placing bets on future outcomes like this isn't the same as placing bets on future outcomes by starting companies, investing in companies, doing fundamental research, or even putting your money in the public markets.

It's like sports betting. We're making the marketplace rich and separating gambling addicts from their livelihoods. Without enriching society.

We should tax this to pay for education or have some kind of societal upside. It's all bad, otherwise.


Which of these are meant to be unbland?


"disproportionately affects men AND WOMEN" is nonsensical.

"disproportionately affects men" makes sense.


The latter is no longer true


From TFA:

> Poland—long a leading coal-mining nation—saw renewable power outstrip coal for electric generation in May, thanks to a remarkable surge in solar construction. In 2021, the country set a goal for photovoltaic power usage by 2030; it has already tripled that goal.

Is this inaccurate / missing something?


Everyone benefits from a well-read community.


Here in the UK:

Average mechanical engineer salary (mid-career) = £45k Max mortgage based on salary = ~£200k Average house price = ~£292k

-> Most people with an engineering degree cannot buy a house


Most people with a mechanical engineering degree cannot buy an _average_ house - not quite the same


Extrapolating your answer, Most mechanical engineering firms are not in the same areas as the cheap houses. So on your point, most mechanical engineers cannot buy a house that they can live in and get to work.


There are several counter arguments here.

Most people with an engineering degree are probably in a relationship, so they don't need to buy a house on a single salary.

There are plenty of houses for sale below the average price, just as there are plenty above.

Buying isn't necessarily the best option anyway. House price returns in the UK are somewhat below stock market returns, so as a pure investment it doesn't make sense. Unfortunately, we have the narrative in the UK that we should aspire to own houses, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily correct!


> Most people with an engineering degree are probably in a relationship

This doesn't feel like a valid assumption.


Over half the UK adult population is married. According to the ONS, 61% of the population aged 16 or above is living with a partner. [1]

Unless the demographics of those with engineering degrees is significantly skewed towards singles, this feels like a very valid assumption. Of course, you might have access to better statistics by profession.

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populati...


That means you can buy a house a little below average. With a spouse straight up can.


It's similar in Ireland, at least amongst my elder relatives. A meal is not really a meal if it doesn't come with potatoes.


American: meat.

Same-same.


If you think the cost for supporting Ukraine is too high, wait until you see the cost of Ukraine falling and Russian tanks crossing into NATO territory :^)


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