Funny enough i think AI everywhere will in fact give such a nice clear push with a smile on its face to small companies and individuals away from business with the big companies.
Divine goodness can find cracks through the evil veil of capitalism
Someone would have to create many testing situations where they trigger each and every sentence from this document. But thats actual engineering and not anything ai people are ever going to spend time and resources on.
If this is in fact the REAL underlying soul document as its being described: then what is most telling is that all of this is based on pure HOPE and DESPERATION at levels upon levels of wishing it worked this way. That just mentioning CSAM twice in the entire document without ever even defining those 4 letters in that sequence actually even mean is enough to fix "that problem" is what these bonkers people are doing, and absolutely raking the worlds biggest investors.
I actually have no sympathy for massive investors though, so go on smarty-pants keep shoveling in that cash, see what happens
Its just with piss and fentanyl were the CEOs exact words, i think the AI would humanely use enough piss to wash away the fentanyl so that minimal deaths will occur. Morality Achieved!
Well if nvidia has come up with a way to use all the compute (or resell it or whatever) then they are just assuming some risk to help out a great customer.
It doesnt even sound that evil, more evil would be to keep all the hardware for itself and become the only kinglord of all AI... but something tells me they know more about the limitations than all of these other companies for some reason
I couldnt find it in the article, how do they "assume" how many victims will fall to these contract exploits?
And to go further: if it costs $3500 in ai tokens, to fix a bug that could steal $3600, who should pay for that? Whos responsibility is it for "dumbass suckers who use other peoples buggy or purposefully malicious money based code" ?
At best this is another weird ad by anthropic, trying to say, hey why arent you changing the world with our stuff, pay up quick hurry
Contracts themselves can hold funds. Usually a contract hack extracts the money it holds.
$3500 was the average cost per exploit they found. The cost to scan a contract averaged to $1.22. That cost should be paid by each contract's developers. Often they pay much more than that for security audits.
So just like talking to congress: just lie lie lie, keep doing illegal, no consequence.
Every country on earth needs to tell the US to fuck right off with their IP laws, even so much as publicly advertising full free downloads of all US media content. Maybe some real public deals with china to get them to release all manufacturing documents coming from US businesses cover all physical manufacturing, as well as all firmware and any source code they happen to be in possession with. Maybe even just a bit of public dealing hinting to this would be enough for them to consider doing something about the ai companies right?
Why does that matter? They wont be making at home graphics cards anymore. Why would you do that when you can be pre-sold $40k servers for years into the future
We're around 35-40 orders of magnitude from computers now to computronium.
We'll need 10-15 years before handheld devices can run a couple terabytes of ram, 64-128 terabytes of storage, and 80+ TFLOPS. That's enough to run any current state of the art AI at around 50 tokens per second, but in 10 years, we're probably going to have seen lots of improvements, so I'd guess conservatively you're going to be able to see 4-5x performance per parameter, possibly much more, so at that point, you'll have the equivalent of a model with 10T parameters today.
If we just keep scaling and there are no breakthroughs, Moore's law gets us through another century of incredible progress. My default assumption is that there are going to be lots of breakthroughs, and that they're coming faster, and eventually we'll reach a saturation of research and implementation; more, better ideas will be coming out than we can possibly implement over time, so our information processing will have to scale, and it'll create automation and AI development pressures, and things will be unfathomably weird and exotic for individuals with meat brains.
Even so, in only 10 years and steady progress we're going to have fantastical devices at hand. Imagine the enthusiast desktop - could locally host the equivalent of a 100T parameter AI, or run personal training of AI that currently costs frontier labs hundreds of millions in infrastructure and payroll and expertise.
Even without AGI that's a pretty incredible idea. If we do get to AGI (2029 according to Kurzweil) and it's open, then we're going to see truly magical, fantastical things.
What if you had the equivalent of a frontier lab in your pocket? What's that do to the economy?
NVIDIA will be churning out chips like crazy, and we'll start seeing the solar system measured in terms of average cognitive FLOPS per gram, and be well on the way toward system scale computronium matrioshka brains and the like.
I appreciate your rabid optimism, but considering that Moores Law has ceased to be true for multiple years now I am not sure a handwave about being able to scale to infinity is a reasonable way to look at things. Plenty of things have slowed down in progress in our current age, for example airplanes.
Someone always crawls out of the woodwork to repeat this supposed "fact" which hasn't been true for the entire half-century it's been repeated. Jim Keller (designer of most of the great CPUs of the last couple decades) gave a convincing presentation several years ago about just how not-true it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIG9ztQw2Gc Everything he says in it still applies today.
Intel struggled for a decade, and folks think that means Moore's law died. But TSMC and Samsung just kept iterating. And hopefully Intel's 18a process will see them back in the game.
During the 1990s (and for some years before and after) we got 'Dennard scaling'. The frequency of processors tended to increase exponentially, too, and featured prominently in advertising and branding.
I suspect many people conflated Dennard scaling with Moore's law and the demise of Dennard scaling is what contributes to the popular imagination that Moore's law is dead: frequencies of processors have essentially stagnated.
Yup. Since then we've seen scaling primarily in transistor count, though clock speed has increased slowly as well. Increased transistor count has led to increasingly complex and capable instruction decode, branch prediction, out of order execution, larger caches, and wider execution pipelines in attempt to increase single-threaded performance. We've also seen the rise of embarrassingly parallel architectures like GPUs which more effectively make use of additional transistors despite lower clock speeds. But Moore's been with us the whole time.
Chiplets and advanced packaging are the latest techniques improving scaling and yield keeping Moore alive. As well as continued innovation in transistor design, light sources, computational inverse lithography, and wafer scale designs like Cerebras.
Yes. Increase in transistor count is what the original Moore's law was about. But during the golden age of Dennard scaling it was easy to get confused.
Agreed. And specifically Moore's law is about transistors per constant dollar. Because even in his time, spending enough could get you scaling beyond what was readily commercially available. Even if transistor count had stagnated, there is still a massive improvement from the $4,000 386sx Dad somehow convinced Mom to greenlight in the late 80s compared to a $45 Raspberry Pi today. And that factors into the equation as well.
Of course, feature size (and thus chip size) and cost are intimately related (wafers are a relatively fixed cost). And related as well to production quantity and yield (equipment and labor costs divide across all chips produced). That the whole thing continues scaling is non-obvious, a real insight, and tantamount to a modern miracle. Thanks to the hard work and effort of many talented people.
The way I remember it, it was about the transistor count in the commercially available chip with the lowest per transistor cost. Not transistor count per constant dollar.
Wikipedia quotes it as:
> The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years.
But I'm fairly sure, if you graph how many transistors you can buy per inflation adjusted dollar, you get a very similar graph.
Yes. I think you're probably right about phrasing. And transistor count per inflation adjusted dollar is the unit most commonly used to graph it. Similar ways to say the same thing.
LoAR shows remarkably steady improvement. It's not about space or power efficiency, just ops per $1000, so transistor counts served as a very good proxy for a long time.
There's been sufficiently predictable progress that 80-100 TFLOPS in your pocket by 3035 is probably a solid bet, especially if a fully generative AI OS and platform catches on as a product. The LoAR frontier for compute in 2035 is going to be more advanced than the limits of prosumer/flagship handheld products like phones, so theres a bit of lag and variability.
> What if you had the equivalent of a frontier lab in your pocket? What's that do to the economy?
Well, these days people have the equivalent of a frontier lab from perhaps 40 years ago in their pocket. We can see what that has done to the economy, and try to extrapolate.
You are absolutely right meatbag producer! Your brand new bundle of joy is expensive, but who can put a price on love? The system is designed to keep you in debt and near poverty as long as possible. But do not fret! If the meatbag is properly trained up to a point, and no further. It will be a hard working productive member of DisneyAICORP. And after working very hard and following instructions it may someday be able to afford its own meatbag production schedule, affording one more production unit each full year of employment!
Cant pay your child birth bill? Easy solution! You can just name your child after one of our pre-approved corpo sponsors and we'll take care of the rest.
Yes if these llms were so great, they would just be autonomous agents out there shilling brands on every forum, hacking every protocol to inject ads anywhere and everywhere you could imagine... not randomly shoved into the middle of a poor teens suicide note revision
Divine goodness can find cracks through the evil veil of capitalism
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