Yep the poster is assuming efficiencies will not come.

Absolutely they will. And this is a huge problem for OAI - given Google is targeting vertical integration, they will acquire a cost-advantage. As long as the model performance is good enough, they will kick OAI and Anthropic out in the long-run.

The valuations of OAI and Anthropic are nonsense. A true valuation would incorporate failure risk, which is natural for startups/fast growing and money losing firms. Anyone who takes them serious is incredibly delusional.

Its simply not going to happen. People like Nadella call it 'tacit knowledge' - the reality is the work people do is much broader than what is producible by LLMs alone. Without the human, there is no work done. Unlike classic machinery, LLMs are not comparable in that you cant simply reduce labour input by X and be fine. Sure in the short term the consequences will not show up, but in the long term they will.

Altman and co. get down on their knees and pray that proposition is only transitory in the short run.

LLMs wont disappear, but they wont be large profit generators either. Especially not so whilst there is fierce competition and every dollar of profit is re-invested. The value of an asset is derived upon its potential cash return, net of reinvestment, taxes et al.

Altman is hoping to survive long enough to finance R&D to figure out how to encode the entirety of what humans do, to be able to come good on the asinine aspirations he has put forth that justify its valuation. But it will end in disaster.

Of course there will be humans, just way less of them.

Instead of ten, you just need two or three

You haven't put forward a compelling argument besides fluff.

This is so surface level and boring.

Most of you aren't really clued up on subject areas like Finance to talk about this stuff frankly. As long as a firm is beating its cost of capital, it will reinvest money to generate more growth. What does that mean? Oh. Hiring more people.

Wtf are you naive?

The states have played a clever game post WW2. But the mask has slipped under Trump.

" airspace dominance/control,"

Lmao re-writing the history books? That plan of attack can be attributable to the Nazis.

"Maybe laser weapons put the balance back toward the side that has them?" Thats more fiction than reality.

I didn’t say it was original with the U.S., just that it has been their strategy for some time.

And the U.S. has been prepping/testing lasers on boats for some time. Combine rapid fire/quick kill with good radar and you have (airborne) drone defense.