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Merry Christmas everyone!

I have an older car with the low light gauges, and so my eyes are more adjusted the darkness. Which makes the poorly calibrated bright lights of newer cars the bane of my life at night.


Exactly. Even if my eyes adjust well to the relative darkness with my lights, the effect is erased the instant I encounter a car coming on me on the opposite side of the road.


One thing that helps is to make sure you don't look at the headlights directly. It really helps to look at the white line on the side of the road when the other car is close to preserve your night vision.


That's an exceptionally high bar of talent and creativity. For the 99.999+% of us, the computer and the mobile has made completion of many tasks highly efficient. Like surfing HN on a lazy Saturday morning...


Your conclusion rests on the assumption that QM's description of reality represents the ontological truth. And such a 'truth' is not provable. However, as you already mentioned, it doesn't matter as QM provides the strongest epistemological claims, and this is what matters in the end.


I think otherwise. I am precisely saying that QM as a formalism denies ontological truth in the first instance. You have to do something like the BM guy above is embarking on.


The amount of total financial support provided to Ukraine is lower than that which Russia has earned from the same bloc. And military support is the smaller fraction of this total. So, the support has been important but without Ukraine deciding to resist Russia vehemently, the Donbass would have long been conquered.

I do agree with your criticism that in certain places, such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka, Ukraine has lost many men needlessly when in an indefensible position. Saying that, Russia is making at best incremental gains for huge casualties. They certainly aren't going to conquer the rest of Donbass by this year or even by the 4th anniversary.


>The amount of total financial support provided to Ukraine is lower than that which Russia has earned from the same bloc.

The amount of aid sent during the war totaled up to about $300 billion, which is roughly equal to the Russian military budget for the same period.

Thats not counting all of the "soon to be expired" stuff they handed over in 2022/2023, declaring it was worth $0 because it would have been disposed of.

>Saying that, Russia is making at best incremental gains for huge casualties.

For every body bag they get back theyve recently been handing over 44.

Territorial gains are only relevant for them right now insofar as it serves their overriding goal of attrition.

>They certainly aren't going to conquer the rest of Donbass by this year or even by the 4th anniversary.

If it serves the overall goal of attrition im sure theyd be happy to drag it out beyond February. Theyre not on a deadline.

The problem is that the more the Ukrainian army gets hollowed out by attrition now, the faster and more complete the eventual collapse will be.


Some notable examples, and likely many others exist throughout history.

Retail does not have the financial power to move any large market. The responsible parties, in either direction are institutional buyers. So your final point is worth consideration. Could it simply be diversification from US Treasuries? Or are there other geopolitical factors?


Yes that's a big part of it. Goldman said last month (when gold was at $3500):

> “We estimate that if 1% of the privately owned US Treasury market were to flow into gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000 an ounce, assuming everything else constant,” the analysts said. “As a result, gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation in the commodities space.” https://archive.is/2WjSc#selection-1491.0-1494.0

In terms of geopolitics, a lot of the demand has been driven by Asia, such as the Reserve Bank of India. The end of the petrodollar pact with Arabia hurt. https://archive.is/t2Ttm When USD went off the gold standard, that pact gave it oil as a leg to stand on. Now that's gone as of 2024. In 2020 the fractional reserve requirements for banks went to zero too. The only thing that gives the USD value is a faith in the American people, which is aged population that flouts its fiduciary duty to debt holders by debasing everyone's currency to fund their own retirements.


I find it hard to believe such an underhanded policy was not approved by senior staff members. Clearly, the negative feedback has forced Slack to change course, but that such a policy was allowed in the first place will be held against Slack by any reasonable person for the foreseeable future.


Indeed, we are able to ask counterfactuals in order to identify it as an illusion, even for novel cases. LLMs are a superb imitation of our combined knowledge, which is additionally curated by experts. It's a very useful tool, but isn't thinking or reasoning in the sense that humans do.


Zuck made him and offer that couldn't be refused. But neither salaries or hype or hope are what AI should be measured against. LLM based AI should be measured against previous technological revolutions, in terms of sustained real income growth and ideally real income growth per person.

Right now capital expenses are responsible for most of AI's economic impacts, as seen by the infrastructure spend contributing more to GDP than consumer spending this year.


And yet this one guy's deal possibly represents 0.5% of the total profit that everyone except Nvidia is making out of this wave of AI. Maybe even more.


One of the worst excesses of this admin has been the attack on science and mathematics, stemming from their deliberate ignorance of evidence. A setback for the researchers and a tragedy for the people that might benefit from their work, the nation and the world as a whole.


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