> You have to see ISIS for what it is. They are teenagers in tin shacks and caves with yesterdays cell phones.
Similar things were said about the Viet Cong, except for the cellphones. The Mijahideen defeated the Soviet Union and arguably lead to it's demise. The US got kicked out of Lebanon and Somalia. I happen to think that won't happen with ISIS, mainly due to the oil but also because the West has allies nearby in the region, or at least people we can work with such as the Kurds, Shia Iraqis and Turkey. Still, being high tech and spending big doesn't guarantee victory.
ISIS may not be an existential threat to the USA, sure, but they're doing a lot of damage to a lot of people and it looks like they will continue to do so for quite some time to come.
The VC were defending their homes, as were the Mujahideen for the most part. They work because they have some popular support. Women of the village make them dinner and clean their clothes. You have to put them in a untenable position. Make them attack solders around the UN truck handing out bottled water and medical care to children, then the power plant supplying the village, then the school. Be the good guy. Eventually the villagers supporting them will want a better life for their daughters and sons and will no longer do so. You will win their hearts and minds. A military or diplomatic victory isn't required, a cultural one is.
Are there any examples of that actually working? We have plenty of examples of utter brutality and backing complete bastards working, see Taiwan and South Korea, or earlier military campaigns in Afghanistan where people actually won instead of declaring victory and going home.
Winning them over with kindness doesn't have a great track record unless there's some other bastard to be the iron fist.
Similar things were said about the Viet Cong, except for the cellphones. The Mijahideen defeated the Soviet Union and arguably lead to it's demise. The US got kicked out of Lebanon and Somalia. I happen to think that won't happen with ISIS, mainly due to the oil but also because the West has allies nearby in the region, or at least people we can work with such as the Kurds, Shia Iraqis and Turkey. Still, being high tech and spending big doesn't guarantee victory.
ISIS may not be an existential threat to the USA, sure, but they're doing a lot of damage to a lot of people and it looks like they will continue to do so for quite some time to come.